Mathematical model for predicting adverse perinatal outcomes in women with COVID-19
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15574/HW.2025.3(178).511Keywords:
pregnancy, COVID-19, perinatal disorders, prediction, preventionAbstract
The aim: to create a mathematical model for predicting adverse perinatal outcomes in women with COVID-19.
Materials and methods. To build a mathematical prediction model, candidate indicators were selected whose frequency significantly differed in the groups of pregnant women with significant perinatal disorders (group O1, n=50) and without such disorders (group O2, n=150), and odds ratio (OR) calculations were performed. To assess the significance of the indicators in points and assign threshold values, the expert evaluation method, the Delphi method, was used.
Results. The most statistically significant indicators for predicting perinatal disorders in pregnant women with COVID-19 are laboratory indicators associated with COVID-19, indicators of disease severity, stress, the presence of anxiety and depression, and endocrine pathology. The constructed model (scale) for predicting perinatal disorders in pregnant women with COVID-19 includes 24 indicators and can be used in 2 stages: 1 - at the prehospital stage and/or at the beginning of hospitalization (9 indicators), 2 - in the dynamics of the disease at the hospital stage (15 indicators). The ease of use (scoring), as well as the established fairly high accuracy (86.7%), sensitivity (87.5%), and specificity (86.4%) of the prediction model, allow us to recommend it for use in clinical practice.
Conclusions. The implementation of a model for predicting perinatal disorders in pregnant women with COVID-19 for the purpose of early identification of high-risk patients, their timely hospitalization, and treatment will reduce the incidence of perinatal complications, morbidity, and mortality of the mother and child.
The research was carried out in accordance with the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki. The study protocol was approved by the Local Ethics Committee of the institution mentioned in the paper. The informed consent of the patient was obtained for conducting the studies.
No conflict of interests was declared by the authors.
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